Before you read what I'm about to write, let me caution you: I am always wrong in predicting elections. There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. I'm just not as smart as I appear.
2. I can't escape my own liberal bias and optimism.
3. I live on a small island off the coast of America where everyone's a liberal Democrat, so I basically have zero perspective of what's going on out in this vast country of ours.
For the 2004 elections, every single campaign I donated to, volunteered for, or even just cheered for, lost. Me supporting a campaign is really the kiss of death, so I that's why this year I have only given to and volunteered for Republicans. I'm kidding.
So let's see if I can guess a little more accurately this year. Here's what I think will happen:
The Senate will be 51/49, advantage Republicans. The Dems will retain New Jersey and thereby lose zero seats. We will also pick up new seats in Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, and Pennsylvania. We will lose the close races in Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee. Lamont will lose to Lieberman in Connecticut. It remains to be seen if Lieberman will caucus with the Dems as he has promised, or if he will show his true colors and caucus with the evil Repubs, which would bump it up to 52/48. For now I'll take him at his word.
The Dems are taking it back for sure. It's just a question of by how many. Everyone's saying it's a big wave, but I'm pessimistic about that because the Dems are great at bungling opportunities and the Repubs are great at voter suppression and election stealing. Most predictions I've seen say it will be about 235/200, advantage Democrats. And a few say Dems will get as many as 241. I predict the final count will be 230/205. As for specific races that have garnered a lot of attention: We'll win 2 of the 3 tight Connecticut races; we'll win all 3 of the Philly suburb races; and we'll gain significantly in upstate New York. I have been personally fighting hard for Colorado's 4th district. It's gonna be close, but since I'm feeling pessimistic I'm going to reverse what I wrote yesterday directly below this post and predict that Angie Paccione will lose by 2 percentage points to evil hate-monger Marilyn Musgrave. Please please please prove me wrong, Angie!!
I also predict that Bush will still be president on Wednesday, and for that I am truly truly sorry.